As we all know here, material conditions have progressively been getting worse and worse. Based on pretty much all political theory, crime rates should also be going up with worse material conditions. But they haven’t, in fact, crime rates have been going consistently down for the past 30 or so years. Why is that?
Several thoughts here, probably no single one adequately explains the situation but I think they’re worth thinking about.
Crime is a category we make up. Bribery is a crime, lobbying is not, the difference is… ? Measuring crime is not something you can consistently do over decades if ‘things that are crimes’ (possessing weed, for instance) are subject to change over that same stretch.
Lots of crimes have moved into digital space. All those onlyfans models would be risking criminal prosecution on the street, depending on what specifically they get up to and where they live, but they do it online in a way that avoids legal trouble and still lets them make up for shortfalls in income or whatever other reasons they have for doing that sort of work. The guy who used to pick your pocket in Times Square or whatever? Nobody carries cash anymore, the real money is made tricking elderly people into giving up their bank details to ‘their grandkids’ or whatever, entire categories of ‘crime’ are happening over the phone or on facebook now.
Criminal activity is one way to respond to deteriorating conditions, but it’s not necessarily the only way and for many people it’s not their first recourse. Many people will pick up second and third jobs, cut their living expenses to the bone, go without medicine etc. to avoid being on the wrong side of our draconian legal system (here in the US at least). Other indicators that things are getting worse would be stuff like ‘more people living with their parents into older and older ages because they can’t afford to rent or buy a home’ or ‘increasing malnutrition’ or even less tangible things like ‘having a shitload of roommates.’ They might start tolerating deteriorating working conditions because of how bleak the alternatives are. Some might even be positive things, like engaging in more communal projects or pooling resources to meet common needs.
It’s not always rational to do crimes to address a deteriorating situation, in fact it very often makes your situation worse. “Things are bad, crime should go up” is pretty simplistic, I think.