I think it is possible that he would have won without the rigging and got, say 55% of the votes. But we will never know because there was rigging, as always: ballot staffing, observers not allowed in, they even removed the curtain in polling booths to make it less anonymous because there was a campaign to take a pic of your ballot and send it to a dedicated website so that the ballots can be counted independently. When you arrest two of your main opponents so that they can’t participate in the election, that’s rigging to and it also nothing new and happened before. Lukashenka likes what he calls “elegant victories,” 80% of votes and up, and he’s been having elegant victories every four years…
Older people like Lukashenka better, in part because he always makes pensions his rallying card, and no matter the economic turmoil in the country he tries to keep the pension system afloat. None of my younger friends like him or voted for him. Same with my parents. But I cannot speak for everyone.
That’s my understanding too. There are no good outcomes any which way you look at the situation. And that includes Lukashenka staying in power, because Russia is getting tired of him too.