First of all I will refer you to this comrade’s comment, who I think is correct about the general situation and it’s a great TL;DR.

But since Belarus is in the megathread now, I thought I’d share my personal experiences growing up there, being very political, and sort of changing my mind a little after I learned a more about imperialism let’s say.

1. Belarus is low-key Syria of Europe. Historically, it had been the buffer state between East and West, and suffered greatly for it, especially during the World Wars. 1/4 of the population had been killed during the second one by some estimates. Imagine.

2. Pompeo visited Belarus in July. No one of that caliber visited Belarus in… ever? Offering oil and gas, the stuff Belarus gets from Russia. It’s not even sus, this is just open tug of war between the US and Russia. All that CIA stuff? For sure. I know a few people who work in the USAID in Minsk. They think they are doing a democracy while advancing the World Bank’s and the IMF agenda.

3. I was the “opposition” in my early 20s in Belarus. Campaigning for democratic candidates, getting arrested, all that. Lukashenka is a fuck, no doubt about it. People were murdered and disappeared on his or his cronies’ command. He has his hand in all kinds of businesses. Tobacco, fish, who knows what else. Very little goes without his say business-wise. His oldest son runs state owned Belarusian lottery last time I checked. He fucked the constitution to let himself get reelected indefinite amount of terms.

4. Here’s the problem from a comrade’s perspective. I wouldn’t vote for Lukashenka, but I wouldn’t vote for any of the other candidates either even if the elections were transparent as glass. What do they want? They fucking want more privatization. That’s what they want. They think democracy is more capitalism, to caricaturize it a little. Because they don’t know what kind of hell full neoliberal capitalism is yet! Because state stuff is ran “inefficiently.” And yea, it is ran inefficiently. But giving state factories to some fucking dudes with money–that’ll be Russia in the 90s all over again. A bunch of well connected people buying up state property for pennies and doing an oligarchy. This will benefit a different group of people, but not the Belarusian people.

5. That’s what this proxy fight between the US and Russia is about in my opinion. Who gets to control of Belarusian assets. Whichever side wins, Belarusians loose, whether they know it it or not. Yea Lukashenka has to go. But there seems to be no one to replace him this time around. It’s fucked like this, whatever happens it’s a loss.

6. In other words and to sum up, just as Belarus is in a way stuck in the semi-socialist past, which now I am realizing, healthcare-wise and certain other things-wise is superior to the US for example, especially for the poorest layer of the population–as much as it is stuck in the past it is also stuck in the sense of “class consciousness.” A lot of people have come to believe, through American movies and propaganda, that freedom is indeed free commerce. I was one of them for a very long time.

7. There are communist parties in Belarus, but they are weak, very weak, they are not a big force for many reasons. Younger people think it’s just stupid nostalgia. Older people remember standing in lines for food. (Belarus, compared to Russia post 1986 was doing relatively well in that regard actually). So no one takes Marx seriously in there. That stuff is not taught there either anymore.

8. Make no mistake. There are still some socialized aspects in Belarus, but it is full blown capitalism like anywhere else. Wage labor. 30 types of ice cream that you can buy from a couple of huge supermarket chains owned by a couple of people.

I’ll answer your questions, sorry for this turning out rambly.