This defeatist, placatory attitude will ensure that we never make any progress.

No one has ever been VP for FOUR TERMS, but that’s the hypothetical bar you set for her, because you assume that’s what it would take? Leaving aside that it’s an impossible ask anyways, being VP for 4 terms isn’t going to satisfy the “old fat white guys” anyways.

Are misogynists gonna demand more of her? Yeah, of course. But don’t go setting the bar higher on their behalf, before they even say anything!

the Earth

FTFY

Uh, as someone who does malware analysis, sandbox detection is not easy, and is certainly not something that a non-malware-developer/analyst knows how to do. This isn’t 2005 where sandboxes are listing their names in the registry/ system config files.

As a huge Sanders fan, he’s too old as well now. AOC for sure, but sadly in this shithole country that’s a pipe dream.

we have determined that the string itself is not a machinegun, whether or not there are loops tied on the ends. However, when the string is added to a semiautomatic firearm as you proposed in order to increase the cycling rate of that rifle, the result is a firearm that fires automatically and consequently would be classified as a machinegun.

So no, gun owners with shoes are not felons, unless they combine those 2 things to make a machinegun. Obviously.

They didn’t make owning shoes a felony. Rich of you too accuse ME of arguing in bad faith in the same breath you say that.

If you use a string to make a reciprocating charging handle pull the trigger as it returns to battery after firing, why is that less “legitimate” in converting the gun into automatic firing than using an auto-sear? In both cases, the gun fires multiple times with a single pull of the trigger by a person.

There is leaked Windows source code online… Is that also freeware for me to train an OS-building model on?

Congress is the one who passed the GCA, FOPA, and NFA. If you don’t like the definition of a machine gun being a firearm that fires more than once with a single actuation of the trigger (and the parts that allow them to), blame them, not the ATF.

Regulations are not laws. They are the specific implementation mechanisms of laws.

For example, Congress passes a law like the Clean Water Act. But that law doesn’t (and cannot feasibily) lay out every single individual rule necessary to ensure the clean water that it seeks to protect and provide.

For example, it contains a section that requires Water Quality Standards to be set by each state, for themselves. However, if a state does not create them, the act authorizes the EPA to create a standard for them.

That’s not the EPA “creating laws”, it’s the EPA implementing the congressionally-passed CWA.

The march into corporatocracy continues.

I think what he means by “charismatic” is someone like Reagan who appeals to the other side of the aisle (Reagan Democrats in this case); Trump is only charismatic to his own followers.

I don’t think working “across the aisle” is really what this is about; I think this is purely about voters’ perceptions of them as people. But in either case, Biden sure isn’t winning anyone over with his personality who wasn’t already firmly center-right Neoliberal.

I consider the Afghanistan withdrawal to be, overall, a highly positive thing; yes, it was handled badly, but it’s the easiest thing in the world to keep a forever war going, and at least there Biden put a stop to it, so I give him high marks for that at least.

Gaza and Afghanistan are polar opposite reactions, depending on what flank of the Democratic party you’re on:

• Gaza is an unmitigated disaster to the anti-war/anti-genocide/anti-SetCol Left flank, and a moderate success to the pro-Israel/ pro-war Neoliberal Right flank.
• Afghanistan is an unmitigated disaster to the pro-war Neoliberal Right flank, and a moderate success to the anti-war Left flank.

Not trying to blindly defend Lichtman or anything, just trying to cling to whatever shred of hope remains.

Understood. I guess for me my anger is more important right now, because this was so avoidable, and Trump feels like he’s close to coming back because of the DNC’s endless hubris (again). And I’ve already seen people trying to somehow blame the anti-genocide/ pro-Palestinian protesters for this over on Reddit, since they reflexively scapegoat any and all centrist Dem failures, and they don’t have a Bernie or Nader to scapegoat this time.

Hell yeah! Nothing good comes from their new model, nor the advertiser-friendly focus of SD3. They were good for pushing the open-source ecosystem forward, but clearly their Capitalist masters have come calling, and they’re enshittifying.

For Biden now. I’ve updated my comment above with the list and my assessments.

I do think Lichtman’s right about debates not changing outcomes, tho

What confuses me is how debates don’t play into whether a candidate is considered charismatic (questions 12/13).

His model was previously based entirely on predicting the popular vote. Now he’s switched it to just predict the winner based on EC delegates. I think we’ll all be thrilled if Trump loses in November (or ideally, just plain dies), but a statistical model that doesn’t factor in things like Republicans trying to pull fake or rogue elector hijinks doesn’t fill me with confidence. And who knows what SCOTUS will do if it’s thrown to them (Lichtman also predicted Al Gore’s ‘win’).

Also, looking at the list, I’m pretty sure more than 6 are false:

1. True
2. If you inspire 650,000 to conduct write-in votes against you, is that a challenge? In any case, not counting this as False.
3. True
4. Mostly true (and RFK really pulls from Reps anyways, polls show)
5. Debatable, so I won’t count
6. Debatable, so I won’t count
7. Debatable. He did push a lot of changes, but the number of rightward-changes that happened under his watch (like Roe being overturned, MQD being bolstered, etc) have overshadowed basically everything else)
8. False. This entire year has been non-stop protests, and not just over Gaza (1)
9. False. Whether it was a bullshit thing to prosecute or not (it was), Hunter’s conviction is a major talking point on the Right to attack Biden (and specifically, to push independents towards viewing Biden and Trump as equally criminal). (2)
10. False. Between the Afghanistan withdrawl and Gaza, he’s got military and foreign policy failures in both flanks’ eyes. (3)
11. False. I think that if Republicans had not been paid by the Kremlin to sandbag aid to Ukraine, he might have had one, but as of now Ukraine is not a success, and I can’t think of any others that are known to voters. (4)
12. False. He was never considered charismatic like Obama, or a “National Hero”. (5)
13. False. Trump’s charisma among his base is a trademark of his populist campaign. It’s why Trump can dominate the Right and DeSantis falls flat. (6)

With the very notable (and relevant) exception of… 2016.

Some are bought. Some are bigots. Some are both.

I think if you’re in a Blue state, you’ll be safe. It’s the folks in Blue enclaves in Red states, like Austin, El Paso, Atlanta, that I’m really worried for.

This is literally 2016 repeating itself.

I really hate being right about the worst fucking stuff.

Biden should never have been put up again, and his performance is gonna enthuse absolutely zero non-political-junkie normies to vote for him.

With states being as voter-suppressed/gerrymandered (or however you prefer to describe the electoral college bullshit) as they are, Dems cannot afford to be slightly ahead. Hillary was slightly ahead. You have to be WAY ahead, and Biden’s not.

If my brother were still there, I’d say, “yes, please”.

Whales