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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • Israel has already been fighting a war with Hezbollah that Hezbollah declared. These attacks were fairly specifically targeted at Hezbollah’s military equipment. They have been arguably successful at disrupting Hezbollah’s communications, and likely command and control systems. That by itself is a valid military objective.

    To the extent that these attacks directly hurt Hezbollah personnel, and to the extent that they damaged Hezbollah’s morale: those too are valid military objectives.

    So “war crime” gets thrown around here quite a bit just because there are high civilian casualties. The facts are twofold: Civilian casualties have always been a part of warfare; and there is no specific number or proportion that makes some act into a war crime. That’s just not how these kinds of laws are written.

    I have not yet seen a strong argument for a specific war crime rooted in a specific basis in international law. A lot of people bring up protocols 1 and 2 to the Geneva conventions, but Israel and the US have not ratified those.

    There are other conventions that regulate weapons of war, but I’m pretty sure none of them are going to address pager bombs directly. An argument there would have to be at least somewhat creative.












  • I can’t immediately find a reference for this, but I would assume that all US forces deployed to support NATO in Europe can be commanded by the Supreme Allied Commander (SACEUR) who is always an American general. If the Russkies decide to invade, I’m sure that SACEUR has the authority to dictate response if he can’t immediately reach the President.

    The only reason that NATO would need to urgently and immediately speak to POTUS is for nuclear weapons release, and fortunately that scenario has been wargamed to hell and back.





  • To be clear: to get back to the ground safely, the spacecraft RCS has to operate for no more than about five hours.

    As far as I know, this spacecraft is still certified for emergency reentry, and if they needed to, the crew can get in and leave at any time. And they have good confidence that the spacecraft will get them to earth safely.

    These delays aimed at getting more data to justify certification as an operational vehicle instead of flight test. If it doesn’t work out, the worst case seems to be that a second test flight may be required.

    Delays don’t really cost NASA anything either. There’s plenty of consumables on the station for the crew, and when the capsule is docked the RCS can be shut down so it doesn’t leak.