MaoShanDong [he/him]

I completely agree. I’ve made several comments about just how time sensitive everything is in terms of what both sides of the current conflict would want to achieve. Arguably this applies to American current interests as a whole. It’s no coincidence that the 2027 deadline for Xi’s imminent invasion of Taiwan keeps being brought up as if its something they PRC has actually ever stated.

There is undoubtedly a sense of urgency within the current western leadership. As much as people have lamented at the quagmire that Ukraine has become for Russia I would say that it is just as much of a quagmire for the US in terms of materiel which is why it has become so eager to throw the issue of Zelensky onto the Europeans.

Likewise the recent development of the BRI especially in Iran’s case has twofold implications that I think would have accelerated the US in terms of their decisions. Firstly, with the development of the landbased rail link, the near nuclear option of decimating regional trade through the blockade of the sea of Hormuz and the destruction of regional oil and gas infrastructure has less of an effect on Iran as a whole. Secondly, with more economic linkage between Iran and the East, it would likely be only a matter of time before further reorientation occurred. The US could always attempt some level of soft coup using the entrenched assets but this comes with its own set of risks.

So it makes total sense for them to suddenly understand the risks they were dealing with. In their calculus striking while the rail link is still relatively new and things have yet to establish themselves fully was probably the best course of action. The issue was of course, they heavily underestimated the resolve of the Iranians and so now are forced to go all in.

This is the gamble both sides are taking for better or for worse. Unfortunately unless there’s a user here with intricate knowledge of Iran’s nuclear development program and is privy to incredibly secure details we have no idea how close or far they are. Optimistically, even if they have in good faith avoided the development of nukes, they have the infrastructure as well as deep institutional knowledge of nuclear science and rocketry that I think there always was some truth to western propaganda about how they’re literally about to develop nukes.

Markets are already closed for the Juneteenth holiday.

More evidence to reinforce the idea that they really are shaken up by the magnitude of the Iranian response. Hopefully this also means that they lack clear consensus on how to move forward.

On top of that the recent completion of the Iran-China Railway means that there is now an operational land based link between the two which may not replace everything 100% but means that Iran has alternatives to sea based shipping.

Probably have their hands full with internal propaganda to ensure settlers don’t start to leave en masse at this point lol

https://xcancel.com/sentdefender/status/1934795792046272750

Photos are currently circulating which appear to show three ships on fire off the coast of Iran in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz. NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) Map appearing to confirm three fires in the Gulf of Oman.

Hard to tell what exactly is on fire right now but likely to be Iranian naval vessels as I don’t believe Iran has begun shutting down the strait. However, this could easily start to escalate towards a blockade of the Strait if Iran feels that it is in their interest to pull that lever in light of today’s events. Oil has already spiked nearly 14% in price in the past week so for everyone not directly involved in the actual conflict this sort of disruption will certainly cause economic hardship for the average person as energy and shipping costs go up.

Possible that they do not wish to necessarily overcommit especially since China I just did naval drills with their own carriers in the WestPac meaning the US is actually outnumbered right now. I think the hope is still to force the Iranians back onto the negotiating table rather than say soften them up for an actual invasion.

Expanding on my comment earlier it isn’t much of a surprise that the escalation has reached this point. The next couple of days will undoubtedly result in the unnecessary loss of lives and infrastructure as I believe that the current western actions are meant to further shock and awe the Iranians back onto the negotiating table as a nuclear Iran is existential in nature to the Israeli project.

However, this will not go nuclear as some commentators are fearing for the main reason that it would be self defeating for both the US and Israel as a whole. The nature of nuclear deterrence is paradoxical almost. If you want a solid threat of nuclear deterrence than the #1 thing you cannot do is show that you are actually willing to go nuclear in a non retaliatory way. Doing so would change the calculus for any opposition that you wish to engage in militarily in the future. In this case nuking Iran who is on the cusp of nuclear capabilities is in practice no different from first striking an actually nuclear capable state as it indicates you are willing to attempt to decapitate them before they can retaliate. The use of nukes would thereby actually encourage opposition to first strike you first if they believe you wish to engage on them in the future. A dark forest scenario if you will. This is both important to Israel as it would encourage everyone in the region to move first at some point in the future to avoid nukes and perhaps more importantly would greatly affect the US’s ability to credibly go against China and Russia.

In total, the absolute worse case scenario going forward from a leftist perspective is if Iran is more of a paper tiger than the US is. If the leadership collapses and their ability to complete the bomb in a timely manner is compromised then they will likely be forced into a disadvantageous agreement and cease to be eventually. If they’ve dragged their feet in their development of nukes this could also result in a very uncomfortable time for Iran. I am not an expert on the ME but based off of other commentators I do not see them as that weak. Optimistically outside of this worse case scenario this will be a severe blow towards US imperial ambitions going forward.

If this level of bombing and attacks do not work to dissuade the development of the nuke in Iranian research sites deep underground and the Iranians refuse to comply with the NPT than the only card the US has left is to either acquiesce to Iran who will at this point all but certainly complete the bomb or go boots to the ground. Such an operation would come at a high price and would not even be guaranteed to succeed. Staging for even the Iraq war at what was arguably the height of American power took several months and occurred when support for such actions from the public were at an all time high. One may argue that leadership would force the issue but military manpower is currently at an all time low. Any delays and any time given to the Iranians is time they will use to develop their nuclear capabilities which will result in a strategic defeat for the west.

In all, this is now a race against time for both sides. My hope is that in the face of such destruction that the spirit if the Iranian people may persevere even in the face of such evil.

Using B-2s in any capacity would be an extreme escalation at this point as they are nuclear capable so Iran would be motivated to immediately push their own nuclear or similar option preemptively if they caught wind of such a build up which would take time. I would imagine there would be a large amount of push back within the American leadership apparatus against such a suggestion as their use would decrease war readiness for the west pacific theater as well.

RE: First point about China I would hazard to guess that in this area the confidence of any pro-retaliatory hardliners is bolstered by the completion of the China-Iran rail line. I would imagine it’s also part of the reason why talks of closing the strait have even been brought up. Even if global shipping is disrupted, supply lines through the inner continent would still be operational to some capacity allowing both the export of oil and import of the raw material necessary for long term resistance. Furthermore, rail lines are far easier to repair and support even in the case of attempted sabotage or bombardment compared to ships.

They’re still killing people unfortunately. There were some posts on the last mega of massacres at aid points still. However, assets are being pulled from Gaza in order to fortify areas against possible Iranian and other resistance entities like Hezbollah potentially so there is that. Until the entity is in true crises the genocide will unfortunately continue.

Honestly if they’re using embedded assets to do shit like this instead of more productive activities related to nuclear development or real sabotage towards materiel I am far more hopeful that their overall infiltration is not as bad as some are suggesting.

https://x.com/MOSSADil/status/1934620239276154998

Iran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to ask Trump to pressure Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire, two Iranian and three regional sources told Reuters.

https://x.com/firstsquawk/status/1934611831102095616

OIL FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES, U.S. CRUDE DOWN BY $3 AND BRENT CRUDE DOWN BY $2 A BARREL AS IRAN SEEKS TALKS WITH U.S. AND ISRAEL TO END HOSTILITIES

It would seem like there is an attempt in the western block to create a narrative that the Iranians are attempting to deescalate. This runs counter to other sources I’ve seen that are more Iranian aligned unless anyone else out here has some decent sources backing up the above claims. My best guess is US is looking for an off ramp since the current violence is causing too much uncontrollable instability for the entity or they’re providing cover for the Nimitz and other assets in order to surprise Iran like they did last week. At this point I’m actually pretty optimistic that the turn of events over the weekend were not within US calculations and now they’re scrambling to adjust, hopefully with more severe consequences down the line.

This is one of the reason’s and biggest contradictions on why the current situation is so risky for Israel and the US. Iran and by extension any opposition in the area does not need to land a decisive blow and literally destroy the entity in its entirely. Instead it just needs to give enough reason for the vast majority of the wealthy elites that provide the base of support to leave. Crippling economic and technological capabilities to the point where the risk adjusted returns of the project isn’t worth it is one of the ways this can go.

Even if the ISSraeli government pushes people back to work as you suggest that would likely just exacerbate the issue and convince more settlers to leave. It’s a lose lose situation which is why they must either escalate and swiftly destroy the Iranian’s or back peddle hard to deescalate the situation. Any sort of in between situation leading to a long drawn out conflict with heightened tensions will lead to the entity slowly bleeding out.

At the very minimum, the deadline for Israel/US in the ME is the acquisition of the bomb by Iran which could be right around the corner meaning a sharp escalation is probable IMO.

Praying that this is the US’s Afghanistan

Once again providing ample evidence on why hating on the fr*nch is a moral imperative.

Tomorrow, in an urgent convention, the Iranian parliament will very likely vote to invoke Article 10 of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which allows signatories to withdraw from the treaty in case of extraordinary circumstances or threats to a nation’s most vital interests.

Completely expected at this point. I’ve personally thought since the retaliatory strikes and the relatively hard line stance the Iranians have projected that escalation towards either the complete destruction of the Iranian state or the completion of their nuclear capabilities and the collapse of Israel/US influence in the region are the only two possible outcomes. Any hope that Iran would forgo nuclear capabilities was completely shattered with the attempted decapitation strike. It is clear to them the west cannot be trusted and thus their continued existence as a state and people can only be secured with the bomb.

On the flip side I disagree with some commentators who view the events of the past week as within the US/Israel’s expectations. I think the overall reaction by Israeli society as well as the sudden reactionary movement of US naval assets into the region show that the calculus for the decapitation strike was likely to induce enough chaos and damage to Iranian leadership that they would be forced back to the negotiating table at a much weaker position or even better a coup could be incited with the loss of leadership. Now the calculus has changed since this has failed.

If nuclear capabilities are inevitable for Iran than western influence in the region will wane if nothing is done in the near term as a nuclear capable opposition means many hard power options are off the table. This doesn’t even go into the possible spread of nuclear capabilities in the region or even worldwide if the taboo of nuclear acquisition is broken. This is not only existential in nature for Israel as a state due to its expansionary nature but also damaging towards the US’s global influence in terms of military which has used the taboo of nuclear proliferation as a means of exerting its own hard power. The West cannot therefore back down now. I’m fully convinced a continued escalation from this point going forward into an eventual war involving the United States in some capacity.

Kyle Rittenhouse copycat perhaps?