While volunteers lined up to fight Russia at the beginning of the war, manpower shortages are now an issue that could seal Ukraine’s fate even if it can retain Western support.
I think that’s a very likely possibility. All the ideologically motivated people signed up at the start of the war, and a lot of them are dead now. Those who remain are becoming increasingly demoralized. Meanwhile, fresh people they’re kidnapping off the street have no training and no interest in fighting. There will be an inflection point where there simply aren’t enough motivated and experienced people to hold the army together. When it’s reached the collapse will be sudden and widespread. This is where a mutiny scenario becomes probable.
Whether NATO goes in directly or not is the big question. It seems like a lot of people in Europe realize that it would be the end of Europe, but the hawks in charge are very much pushing for this.
I think that’s a very likely possibility. All the ideologically motivated people signed up at the start of the war, and a lot of them are dead now. Those who remain are becoming increasingly demoralized. Meanwhile, fresh people they’re kidnapping off the street have no training and no interest in fighting. There will be an inflection point where there simply aren’t enough motivated and experienced people to hold the army together. When it’s reached the collapse will be sudden and widespread. This is where a mutiny scenario becomes probable.
Whether NATO goes in directly or not is the big question. It seems like a lot of people in Europe realize that it would be the end of Europe, but the hawks in charge are very much pushing for this.