• jonirenicus2@lemmy.ml
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    1 year ago

    I wonder if theres a bookie who specialises in the untimely demise of Putin-affiliate people - then I wonder what Prigozhin’s odds are.

    • cxtinac@sh.itjust.worksOP
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      1 year ago

      Ha, I’d rather take odds on Lukashenko “falling from a window” - I seem to remember he was reported as “seriously ill” a few weeks ago, plus if I remember Putin was pressuring him to attack Ukraine, and he refused.

      Get rid of L. and Putin can install Prigo. and they will work together on Ukraine. Scary.

      • flip@lemmy.nbsp.one
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        1 year ago

        In my opinion, Prigozhin is done. How would you envision Putin installing Prigozhin anywhere and save face?

        • cxtinac@sh.itjust.worksOP
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          1 year ago

          Yeah you may be right, I even hope you’re right. But I don’t think Putin cares about saving face in the west.

          I would guess his biggest challenge would be keeping the Belorussian people in line. I know little about the country, I should probably read up!

          • flip@lemmy.nbsp.one
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            1 year ago

            I do not think he wants to save face in the west, but within Russia itself. But who knows 🤷

            • cxtinac@sh.itjust.worksOP
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              1 year ago

              That’s exactly right. I imagine Putin & his lackeys are very busy indeed right now. Just I would definitely not count him out like many articles seem to be.

              Edit: spelling

  • cxtinac@sh.itjust.worksOP
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    1 year ago

    To comment on my own link, I still think (per comments elsewhere), that right from the get-go this is a 3-way play orchestrated by Putin to get a strong fight-ready leader on his western flank, and north of Ukraine.

    I do not think it has much at all to do with a coup or exile.

    • Rinox@feddit.it
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      1 year ago

      Doubt it, any military buildup would be spotted weeks before any possible “surprise offensive” were to take place. It’s one of the most monitored borders in the world afterall.

      • pinwurm@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        Indeed. People forget that that satellites exist and it’s not very easy to hide traveling military equipment and troops.

        Months before the war, every news outlet was warning about a buildup on the Russian border.

      • cxtinac@sh.itjust.worksOP
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        1 year ago

        Good point, but Putin plays the long game, I suspect this is strategic manoeuvring for 12-18 months from now.

    • pinwurm@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Experts are saying that’s unlikely, though. Why ruin the credibility of the Ministry of Defense if they needed a strong leader? Especially one that’s openly criticized the war to begin with. Pretty bad for morale.

      If anything, we’ve learned Putin has a lot less orchestral than expected.

      Paramilitary private armies are expensive and unpredictable. And technically illegal under Russian law.

      At a time when resources are tight and public trust in government is flaky, it’s makes sense for Putin to consolidate Wagner into the Russian army.

      Prigozhin isn’t a brilliant military strategist (to be fair, neither is Shoigu). He’s a businessman who earned $2B through Wagner milking State money. The dissolution of Wagner is the end of that revenue stream, and possibly his own life.

      IMO, it seems to me like the mutiny is a last ditch negotiating tactic or emotional outburst as a response to losing his livelihood.

      Or… we’ll learn in the coming months and years that there’s a lot more to this story.

      • cxtinac@sh.itjust.worksOP
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        1 year ago

        Fair enough, I couldn’t disagree at all.

        Would be wonderful to sneak a peak at a historical analysis from ++50yrs: either it’s Putin’s masterstroke, or he’s struggling to tamp down prima donna Prigohzin with his buddy Lukashenko’s help. Occam’s razor would certainly point to the latter.

    • Rob@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Every analysis I’ve read from reputable sources have come to the conclusion that this was bad for Putin. I think I’ll stick to Occam’s razor on this one.

    • Soviet Snake@lemmygrad.ml
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      1 year ago

      You are just comming up with shit, stop doing creative writing. Prigozhin is a prisoner and he is closer to the death sentence than to ever commanding an army again.