Whats going on in Mexico? (effortpost)

so you nerds have probably heard of some elections thats happened this week on the country and that they were important, there was fraud, it starts the end of morena/ the opposition, that the presidential election is until next. but dont worry im here to explain them to you.

So last week there was a party election in the Morena Party, Morena is the current ruling party funded by the now president Lopez Obrador, its a social democratic party with some pro-labor views, this party election was important because it decided who out of 6 candidates would become the presidential candidate of the ruling coalition, like a USA primary, except it was decided via surveys instead of normal voting like a popularity rating.

So out of the 6 candidates only 2 were really going to win, which were Marcelo Ebrard and Claudia Sheinbaum

Marcelo Ebrard

He was the Secretary of Foreign Affairs of Obrador and was a very active member of the cabinet of the president, He joined the party in 2018 and he used to be member of 3 other parties (MC, PRD, PRI) he has know obrador since 2000 when he backed his campaign for Governor of Mexico city and he became secratary of public security, then on 2006 he became the Gobernor of Mexico city and continue the same policies as Amlo. then for the presidential election of 2012 Obrador became the candidate of the PRD and he promised Ebrard a spot in his cabinet as Foreign relations secretary, but he lost, on those 6 years between 2012 and 2018 Ebrard would leave the PRD and join Movimiento Ciudadano which is a progresive liberal party until 2018 when he joined Obrador’s party Morena and became the foreign relatios secretary when Obrador won on 2018

So what are his views? to me he believes in the same social democratic ideals like the president except he has always backed a very internationalist outlook he wants mexico to be more active in international organizations like the UN and on the internacional stage. thats the vibe i get from him

Claudia Sheinbaum

The first party she joined was the PRD were she meet Obrador and when he won the election for Head of goberment of Mexico City she became part of his cabinet and became Secretary of the Environment, she oversaw the introduction of the Public transport proyects like the Metrobus and others, and Obrador added her to his Cabinet for the presidency of 2012 but he lost, then in 2014 She follow Obrador and became a founding member of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) the current ruling party, then on 2018 she would get the candidacy for Governor of Mexico city and would win becoming head of goverment of Mexico city.

During her governorship her main agenda was the introduccion of green policies to control the contamination in Mexico city, like planting tree, ban single use plactis, built new waste separation plants, etc. as well as the expantion and development of the Public transport system in the city, her biggest challenge was the covid-19 pandemic in which she pushed for more lockdown policies that were well recieved.

so her view, to me she is mainly an enviromentalist not only because of her policies during her governorship but also because she has a doctorade in environmental engineering, her administration of the city is seen as tecnocratic, and she is big support of obrador since she left the PRD and joined his party in its infancy so i say she probably has the same social democratic views as him

The Morena election

so yesterday the survey results were revealed, and Shienbaum won with 39% of support to Ebrard 26%, to me it wasnt that surprising Claudia has always been the more famous one even with Ebrard’s many apparences with the president, both have been basicaly campaigning since june but really they both started much sooner since like the start of the year, for example in the state i live it isnt governed by Morena yet in the city there is a Big poster with Shienbaum face saying “she supports you”.

ok so the drama is that Ebrard is a sore loser and called the survey an error and posible fraud, and in interviews he said that there isnt space in the party for him, etc. so he is probably leaving the party, but the question is to where?

What now?

OK so for the presidential election in 2024 there are 3 main factions that will participate mainly only 2 have a chance to win and will probaly be Morena

• So the first faction is Juntos Hacemos Historia which is a coalition of 3 parties, first is Morena they are socdems, then is Partido del Trabajo which is a small labour party more left than morena you could call them socialists, and finally Partido verde which dont belive their lies its not a green party is just a PRI remnant they are liberals, Its really just Morena and friends only the PT have ever been close ideologically to Morena, Verde is a recent addition in 2018 election it was Morena, PT and a party called Encuentro Social who were christian ultraconservatives, they now go by PES and arent morena’s ally anymore, their candidate will be Shienbaum

• 2nd faction is Frente Amplio por México, made up by Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) who are christian conservatives who fun fact ther party was founded by fascists, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) they used to be the only Ruling party of the country for 70 years they used to be called the perfect dictartorship they are neoliberals, and the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) they are socdems, in the past if you made a coalition of ths 3 parties you would have gotten more than 90% of the votes, the reason why is that 20 years ago they were pretty much the only 3 viable parties you had the neolibs, the conservatives and the socdems. the reason why this is not the case anymore is that in 20 we saw the collapse of the PRD and PRI alongside the rise and fall of the PAN, the PRD and PRI lost the mayority of their supporters to Morena and the PAN after a terrible presidency of Calderon they have never recovered. FA hasnt picked a candidate for presidency yep but its between 3 people, which are Xóchitl Gálvez (she seems to be the more popular), Santiago Creel and Beatriz Paredes

• 3rd and last is Movimiento Ciudadano, who are a progressive liberal party , they are going at it alone but their objective isnt to win the presidency but to gain enough support to become the main opposition party over the members of Frente amplio, they dont have a candidate yet and this strategy has caused infighting in the party for beign risk but their luck change for the better with the Morena elections, because if Ebrard lefts morena he will probably join MC since he used to be a member and their will get a very popular candidate.

So if the popular theories happen the Presidential Elections of 2024 will be battle between Claudia Shienbaum (Morena), Xóchitl Gálvez (FA) and Marcelo Ebrard (MC) its still very likely that morena wins again, however the important event is from which coalition will MC’s candidate pull supporters from, now its posible Sheinbaum will lose some votes to Ebrard because he did got 26% support in the survey but its important to remember that Morena is Obradors party and people voted for them because it had Obrador not anything else so its hard to say if any will vote MC over morena again.

Now the more interesting effect would be if MC’s pulls voters from Frente Amplio, this is posible because rembering the views of the member parties of Frente Amplio is that it has no Ideological Cohesion, in the past all 3 parties used to call eachother corrupt, narco supporters, dictators. So from going from that to today its a very sudden, this is really an anti-morena party, MC used have a coalition with PAN and PRD which made more sense than FA but they decided to not continue to ideological diferences, which is good for MC in a way because the FA main problem is that they just look like a bunch of sellouts (which they are) and you could say thats a reason why PRD and PRI lose so many voters and supporters to Morena who has ideological cohesion.

The elections for 2024 are going to be very important for the country in my opinion on one point it will cement Morena’s hegemony over the country dependen on by how much they win, and two what will be the future of Oposition parties, will the follow the Frente Amplio’s plan of becoming a centrist amorphous blob that has abandon all its ideals or the MC plan of just countinuing the way they have always been like, being a minor party until the big one fucks up.

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