It’s motherfucking happening
Ahead of schedule
With accelerating velocity
It’s fucking happening AHHHH
While power-sector emissions stabilised, the largest source of reductions in emissions in March was the continued decline in demand for steel and cement from the construction sector…
China’s economy is not doing well, especially construction and real estate. It’s not “happening” until there’s a continuous drop in Co2, across many months, and while the economy is stable or expanding.
2023Q4 - 5.2% GDP growth
2024Q1 - 5.3% GDP growth (+0.7% over estimates)
Caixin Manufacturing PMI - 51.1
Citi GDP growth estimate 2024 - 5% (up from 4.6%)
This is as China’s real estate sector is actively deflating and dragging down GDP growth (real estate as % of GDP estimated to drop from a high of 24% in 2018 to 19% in 2023) on the order of about 1 percentage point annually.
I’m really not sure what you’re talking about? Labour is rotating into clean tech deployments, GDP growth numbers actively account for the deflation of the real estate bubble, manufacturing is still expanding, and estimates for GDP growth from Western analysts continue to shoot up. Meanwhile, bankrupt developers are having their projects be repurposed into public housing.
In fact, investments are rotating rapidly from real estate into industrial capacity, which tends to have higher short-term ROI and a more significant short-term contribution to GDP.
The biggest concern IMO is the rapid expansion of debt at the national level, which reflects the collapse of LGFVs as a viable method of supporting provincial coffers due to the decline in real estate - China’s government is becoming more centralized, and that has the potential to intervene with the (astonishingly successful) hands-off policy that’s been adopted in the past.
I’m curious. When you read articles about how great the economy in the US is and it’s just the voters that don’t understand, do you agree? Do you believe the US government no matter how badly they do? If you don’t believe the US government on this, why do you believe what their propaganda says about their enemies?
Woohoo we won’t die!
It is far from over.
We are currently doing the easy part of dropping emmissions. We have not yet peaked, globally speaking. Then we need to get to zero.
The only possible pathway now is overshoot and return. Which means we depend on carbon removal in a big style, in whatever form that will be.
It also means we will go temporarily over 2 °C. That is a critical number where several tipping points could be reached.
Pretty much the hardship has just begun. Now we need to stop emitting completely, somehow in the same time start to remove atmospheric CO² and hope that while we will be over 2 °C that no crucial tipping points will be reached.
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