With Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah’s martyrdom marking a very significant moment in the history of the resistance, I think that it puts a natural stop to my effortpost about the history about the pan-Shia moment. I’m also just too demoralised and sad to continue writing, maybe I’ll one day do another one of these in happier times. Thank you all for reading these, I can answer any questions if God gives me strength. I have one favor to ask, can someone please post this in the history or effortpost comms?

Part One

Part Two, it gets continued in the first comment

Part Three, it also gets continued in the first comment

looks like Israel is getting hit by Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq simultaneously

Putin says that Russia will be updating its nuclear policy to include aggression by non-nuclear states backed by nuclear powers (proxy wars, essentially)
On one hand I definitely see the need for that kind of policy but it is a bit of a moment

Scottish study finds zero cases of cervical cancer among women vaccinated for HPV before age 14
Just noticed this article is actually from January but fuck it

Apparently the welding on US nuclear submarines and carriers are so bad that it’s being investigated as possible sabotage

Hello, comrades. Like many of you, i do not live in SWANA and am saddened by the death of Hassan Nasrallah. i do not have any primary sources to add, but i do think there is at least one early operational lesson to be drawn from the facts we do have.

We know that a block of Beirut was destroyed by a number of missiles and bunker busters. Several hundreds if not over a thousand innocent people were killed and injured. But what is a bunker buster? In short, it is a bomb with a very thick shell (and so they are often very heavy relative to the payload size) and a remote delay or altitude based fuse. The ideal is that it smacks into the ground, keeps going forward for a certain depth or time, and then it goes off. And what kind of bombs are the USA and its lapdog using in their depraved spiral of carnage?

First, the GBU-28. Designed and produced first in 1991, there is actual technical information available. I have a deeply biased source, which gets a little too cutesy with the story of USamerican ingenuity. The relevant information here is “penetrated 22 ft of reinforced concrete and then kept flying for half a mile [of air]”. This bomb has a warhead containing roughly 675 kilograms of explosives. It’s also worth thinking about the fact that this bunker buster was designed with Iran, Iraq, Libya, and the DPRK explicitly in mind.

Next, consider Al-Jazeera reports of 5000 pound bombs and also this article from three years ago. The GBU-72, released in 2022, was designed with advice from IDF experiences with the 28. This is a JDAM conversion, which is the US military term for how the Russians are slapping basic guidance kits and two wings on surplus ordinance to create modern precision weapons on the cheap. So it has a larger warhead (though we don’t know how much) and it’s more accurate. Accuracy should mean hitting the street or ground in order to not waste the penetrating power, but who knows with the zionist entity. It’s worth noting that these are technically laser guided munitions. But how do you think the West determines where to put the laser if not via satellite imagery? And if they are figuring out a location from satellite imagery, what would they use if not GPS, which was put into space for this purpose?

Now we can talk all day about tunnel design and where we should be meeting with important diplomats. But the big point here is that JDAM, and all other dumb bombs with smart targeting, are wholly reliant on GPS. there are no USamerican bunker busters (that i can find info on) that do not use GPS. i, with all my authority as an armchair analyst, think that the Axis of Resistance needs to start working on spoofing and hardening devices against GPS (i am certain they already have). Spoofing refers to setting up a transmitter to feed a false stream of data into the environment, which makes it an obvious target but also creates a sort of bubble protection. Hardening can mean several things, but in this case i mean double checking communication devices for tracking bands (many chips can be built to only transmit at certain frequencies), reducing all GPS interaction in the area, and literally covering the walls of certain areas with aluminum foil if it comes down to it. i say reduce because i don’t know if you can stop all civilians in the area from using map software. If anyone wants to scream from the rooftops about Iran, don’t say you want them to launch anything. Iran needs to deploy every piece of electronic warfare it has, at home and in Lebanon, and then it needs to put in an order for twice as many more from China and Russia.

I hope everyone gets the chance to take a deep breath today and maybe step out to touch grass for a bit.

Nasrallah’s death is heavy news whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist. It doesn’t do the Resistance any favors, but it’s also not going to kill the will to fight.

It is going to get people like us emotional and heated though. Conflicts are rarely smooth affairs and while this is a big hit, it’s also not the first setback. That’s how it goes, whether the path leads to victory or defeat. Sacrifice is inevitable. Be sure to take care of yourself if the situation is getting you stressed out. And if you have the energy, don’t forget to support any comrades who may be taking this extra hard for whatever reason.

If Hezbollah focuses their strikes on the Israeli electrical grid, they could benefit from the West’s shortage of electrical equipment (that Ukraine also urgently needs).

If they do it slowly and methodically, they can possibly avoid giving the US a reason to intervene.

completly unhinged idea: hezbollah and hamas merge and yahya sinwar becomes head of them both. he is very good at opsec. better opsec would be great for hezbollah. hiding oct 7 and being able to survive isfakes attacks in a very hard place shows his competency

Settlement in Jerusalem got it by hezbollah and lost power

Joe Biden says Nasrallah’s assassination “is a measure of justice for his many victims”, which include Americans, and calls for the two sides to accept diplomatic agreements to end the war. “It’s time for the threats to Israel to be removed and for the Middle East to have stability,” he said.

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/124402

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/124403

A Hezbollah missile seemingly destroyed some electrical infrastructure near Jerusalem (lights go out).